题目：气候变化经济学研究心得——以气候变化对高价值农产品市场影响研究为例

时间：5月21日 13:00-14:30

地点：低碳学院五楼报告厅

报告人：解伟  研究员

邀请人：张宇泉  副教授

报告人简介

解伟，北京大学现代农学院、北京大学中国农业政策研究中心研究员、博士生导师，北京大学中国农业政策研究中心副主任。他同时是北京大学“博雅青年学者”，“国家优秀青年科学基金”获得者。主要研究领域为粮食安全政策、资源环境经济、农业部门均衡模型（CAPSiM）及可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）。近年在气候变化与食物安全政策领域取得丰硕成果，相关成果发表在自然科学类杂志，如Nature、Nature子刊Nature Plants和Nature Food、Risk Analysis、Environmental Research Letters等；经济管理类杂志，如American Journal of Agricultural Economics、China Economic Review，China Agricultural Economic Review等。多篇文章入选“全球最受关注的百篇论文排行榜”、“CAER高被引用论文”、“Highly Commended Papers”、“领跑者5000-中国精品科技期刊顶尖论文”等奖项。过去5年，独立主持6个科研项目，包括科技部973和国家重点研发计划子课题2项、国家自然科学基金3项及国际合作项目1项；作为骨干参与自然科学基金重点项目、省部级项目、国际合作项目10余项。基于研究成果，还向中央和国家部委递交多份政策简报，产生一定的政策影响。

Abstract

Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Yet the vulnerability of beer supply to extreme events under future climate change has never been assessed. Here, we couple a process-based crop model (DSSAT) and a global economic model (GTAP) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios from five Global Climate Models (GCMs). We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer, and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (e.g., -32%) and increases in beer prices (e.g., +193%). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, our findings that climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.